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| Author: | Cleman, R. T. Winkler, R. L. |
| Title: | Unanimity and compromise among probability forecasters. |
| Journal: | Management Science
1990 : JUL, VOL. 36:7, p. 767-779 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING TECHNIQUES PROBABILITY |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | A decision maker who adopts the agreement of two forecasters regarding the probability of an uncertain event as his own view, is said to act in accord with the unanimity principle. The unanimity principle makes sense only when forecasters agree on the probability of an event. A variety of the Bayesian consensus models is discussed with respect to the existence or nonexistence of conformance to unanimity principle. In the analysis of a set of meteorological forecast data it is shown how well an empirical pattern of conformance reflects the unanimity principle, if the models fit to the data. |
SCIMA