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| Author: | Keilman, N. Kucera, T. |
| Title: | The impact of forecasting methodology on the accuracy of national population forecasts: Evidence from the Netherlands and Czechoslovakia |
| Journal: | Journal of Forecasting
1991 : JUL, VOL. 10:4, p. 371-398 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING TECHNIQUES SOCIAL FORECASTING METHODOLOGY NETHERLANDS CZECHOSLOVAKIA |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The accuracy of national population forecasts of the Netherlands and the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic /CSSR/ is examined. The study is based on data produced by the statistical offices of these countries after World War 2. Attempts are made to link patterns of ex-post errors to changes in forecasting methodology. Demographic components are considered that were employed in each forecast. Errors in total population size, fertility, mortality and foreign migration, and age structure are considered. Trends in error and methodology since 1950 are discussed, and the situation in the two countries is compared. It was found that methodology has only limited impact on forecast accuracy. |
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