search query: @indexterm Exchange Rate Mechanism / total: 26
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| Author: | Thomas, A. |
| Title: | Expected devaluation and economic fundamentals |
| Journal: | Staff Papers
1994 : JUN, VOL. 41:2, p. 262-285 |
| Index terms: | DEVALUATION EXCHANGE RATE MECHANISM ECONOMICS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Recent incidents of exchange rate collapse have provoked interest in how much these events are determined by economic fundamentals. This paper considers whether interest rate differentials are appropriate measures of the risk of devaluation and whether this measure of devaluation risk reflects the movements of variables that capture internal and external balance. The finds that interest rate differentials reflect devaluation risk but that movements in fundamental variables in France and Italy have only a weak effect on devaluation risk. |
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