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| Author: | Arnott, R. D. Casscells, A. |
| Title: | Demographics and Capital Market Returns |
| Journal: | Financial Analysts' Journal
2003 : MAR-APR, VOL. 59:2, p. 20-29 |
| Index terms: | INVESTMENT INDUSTRIES CHANGE FINANCIAL MARKETS MACROECONOMICS DEMOGRAPHY |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | In this paper the authors start by analyzing the demographic patterns of the past 60 years. The first element of the problem is the increasing population over 65. The second element is the falling number of workers who provide the goods and services for the retirees (and for their own families). Because of both the Baby Boom of 1946-1958 and the Baby Bust of 1965-1990, the proportion of the population over 65 will soar from 12 percent today to 20 percent in 2030. The result will be deterioration in the dependency ratio-the ratio of those who produce no goods or services (and are thus dependent on others) to those who provide the goods and services for all. |
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