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| Author: | Kendon, R.P. Kerr, W.A. Cullen, S.E. |
| Title: | Foresight in forecasting: the case of petrochemicals |
| Journal: | Journal of General Management
1986 : WINTER, VOL. 12:2, p.41-57 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING PETROCHEMICALS INDUSTRY MARKET STRUCTURE |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Formal computerized modelling has been promoted as the high tech solution to firms' forecasting needs. It is pointed out that while it may provide considerable insights in many industries,such models have serious shortcomings in other industries related to industrial structure. If formal modelling is not appropriate then the less technical fundamentals approach proved to be a viable alternative. Importance is attributed to that general manager understands the limits of both approaches. An analysis of forecasting in the petrochemical industry is provided as an example of the limitations which market structures set on formal models. |
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