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| Author: | Hau, R. Pleskac, T.J. Hertwig, R. |
| Title: | Decisions from experience and statistical probabilities: Why they trigger different choices than a priori probabilities |
| Journal: | Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
2010 : VOL. 23:1, p. 48-68 |
| Index terms: | decision making experience risk uncertainty sampling |
| Freeterms: | rare events risky choice |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | It is argued in the paper that the distinction btw. a-priori and statistical probablities (herein as: s-probs.) is important because risky choice based on a priori and s-probs. can substantially differ. To understand why, various possible contributing factors to the description-experience gap are examined. It is found that payoff variability and memory limitation play only a small role in the emergence of the gap. The presence of rare events and their representation as either natural frequencies in decisions from experience or single-event probs. in decisions from description appear relevant for the gap. |
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