search query: @author Lesage, J. P. / total: 3
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| Author: | Lesage, J. P. |
| Title: | Scoring the composite leading indicators: A Bayesian turning points approach |
| Journal: | Journal of Forecasting
1992 : JAN, VOL. 11:1, p.35-46 |
| Index terms: | DECISION THEORY BAYESIAN STATISTICS ECONOMIC INDICATORS TIME SERIES PROBABILITY MEASUREMENT FORECASTING |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | A Bayesian decision-theoretic approach is explored for analysis and development of composite leading indicators. Several formerly developed methods are used to develop composite leading indicators formed by using the posterior probabilities derived from predictive relations between the individual indicator variables and the state of the economy measure as weights. Time series observations are applied on the measures of economic activity which are intended to predict along with an explicit definition of a turning point, either a downturn or an upturn. Then a predictive relation is established between the individual component indicator series and the variable measuring economic activity allowing a Bayesian computation of probabilities. |
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