search query: @author Lederer, P. J. / total: 3
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| Author: | Lederer, P. J. |
| Title: | Predicting the winner's curse |
| Journal: | Decision Sciences
1994 : VOL. 25;1, p. 79-102 |
| Index terms: | DECISION ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS STATISTICAL METHODS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical method to answer two questions that a participant in a first price auction when evaluating a candidate bid: "What are my chances of winning?" and "What is the effect of the winner's curse on my quantity estimate?" by estimating a predictive distribution of the highest competing bid and the quantity caused by the winner's curse. The method is developed for timber auctions but is general to auctions where a fixed is called for and there is uncertainty in the mix and quantities of items being offered. An example that uses data from timber auctions is used to demonstrate the method. |
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