search query: @author Klophaus, R. / total: 3
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| Author: | Klophaus, R. |
| Title: | Marktausbreitung von Bildschirmtext: Zu den Ursachen einer Fehlprognose |
| Journal: | Schmalenbachs Zeitschrift für Betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung
1996 : VOL. 48:6, p. 579-588 |
| Index terms: | SALES FORECASTING DIFFUSION MODELS FORECASTING TECHNIQUES |
| Language: | ger |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstrates the limited applicability of diffusion models in the tradition of Bass (1969) for early sales forecasting. The incorrect forecast of videotext diffusion in Germany by Berndt/Fantapie Altobelli (1991) is used to illustrate serious problems concerning the model and the data that arise when traditional diffusion models are applied to predict market penetration of new products. Due to these problems it is necessary to consider other forecasting techniques. With alternative techniques it may be possible to forecast product sales prior to the introduction to the product into the market place. Furthermore, the failure of an innovation could also be predicted |
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