search query: @author Kulendran, N. / total: 3
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| Author: | Kulendran, N. Shan, J. |
| Title: | Forecasting China's monthly inbound travel demand |
| Journal: | Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing
2002 : VOL. 13:1-2, p. 5-19 |
| Index terms: | Tourism Travel China Forecasting Econometric models |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The paper focuses on two issues: (1) forecasting China's monthly inbound travel demand and (2) seasonality and seasonal ARIMA model selection for monthly tourism time-series. Following seasonal ARIMA models were considered: the seasonal Arima model with first differences and 11 seasonal dummy variables, the conventional seasonal ARIMA model with first and the fourth differences. The forecasts of this study indicate that China foreign visitor arrivals and total visitor arrivals are expected to grow by 14 % qnd 27 % respectively from 2002 to 2005. |
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