search query: @author Samson, D. A. / total: 3
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| Author: | Samson, D. A. Thomas, H. |
| Title: | Assessing probability distributions by the fractile method : evidence from managers. |
| Journal: | Omega
1986 : VOL. 14:5, p. 401-407 |
| Index terms: | PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATION MANAGERIAL EFFECTIVENESS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The language of probability is used in decision analysis models to represent various states of uncertainty. Various approaches have been offered as aids for assessing subjective probability distributions. The fractional method uses a multi-dimensional scaling. The main results of this study are: (1) groups with more managerial experience were found to be better calibrated than those with lower expertise and less experience; (2) training improves assessment performance. |
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