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| Author: | Wolfe, C. Flores, B. |
| Title: | Judgmental adjustment of earnings forecasts. |
| Journal: | Journal of Forecasting
1990 : JUL-SEP, VOL. 9:4, p. 389-405 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING TECHNIQUES EARNINGS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Earning forecast studies have recently centered on the comparative accuracy of judgemental and objective forecasting methods. Examinations were directed to the use of combinations of subjective and objective forecasts to improve forecast accuracy. An extension of this topic by subjectively modifying an objective forecast is presented. Specifically, ARIMA forecasts are judgementally adjusted by analysts using a structured approach based on an analytic hierarchy process. This study combines a forecast-specific judgemental adjustment factor with an underlying statistically forecast. The results show that the accuracy of the unadjusted forecast can be improved by judgemental adjustment. |
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