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| Author: | Keefer, D. Verdini, W. |
| Title: | Better estimation of PERT activity time parameters |
| Journal: | Management Science
1993 : SEP, VOL. 39:9, p. 1086-1091 |
| Index terms: | PROJECT MANAGEMENT TIME ESTIMATION |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper builds upon earlier work from the decision/risk analysis area in presenting simple, easy-to-use approximations for the mean and variance of PERT activity times. These approximations offer significant advantages over the PERT formulas currently being taught and used, as well as over recently proposed modifications. Using the proposed approximations can significantly improve the accuracy of probability statements about project completion time, and their use complements ongoing efforts to improve PERT analysis of networks involving multiple critical paths. |
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