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| Author: | Shumsky, R. A. |
| Title: | Optimal updating of forecasts for the timing of future events |
| Journal: | Management Science
1998 : MAR, VOL. 44:3, p. 321-335 |
| Index terms: | AIR TRANSPORT FORECASTING DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING MODELS USA |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Estimating the time of some future event is a major problem in forecasting. Traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once. One application is examined, in which flow control managers in the U.S. air traffic system depend on forecasts of aircraft departure times to predict and alleviate potential congestion. These forecasts are periodically updated until take-off occurs, although the number of updates may be limited by the cost of collecting, processing, and distributing information. The procedures developed balance the costs of accumulated forecast errors and the costs of forecast updates. The procedures are applied to the aircraft departure forecasting problem and are compared with methods currently used by air traffic management system. |
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