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| Author: | Boero, G. Smith, J. Wallis, K.F. |
| Title: | Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England survey of external forecasters |
| Journal: | Economic Journal
2008 : JUL, VOL. 118:530, p. 1107-1127 |
| Index terms: | banks economic forecasting uncertainty United Kingdom |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Data from the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters is introduced here. The survey offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty by collecting point and density measures of inflation and GDP growth. A simple statistical framework to define and interrelate measures of uncertainty and disagreement is presented. The resulting measures are compared with other direct measures of uncertainty, nationally and internationally. |
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