search query: @indexterm SOCIAL CHANGE / total: 343
reference: 98 / 343
| Author: | Pistorius, C. Utterback, J. |
| Title: | The death knells of mature technologies |
| Journal: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1995 : NOV, VOL. 50:3, p. 133-151 |
| Index terms: | TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING SOCIAL CHANGE ECONOMICS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The oscillatory behavior in the mature phase of some technologies' diffusion-related S curves are investigated. The notion of mortality indicators is raised, that is, whether such behavior is a signal that the mature technology is under attack from an emerging technology. The case of structural panels in the wood products industry is considered as an example, and an updated forecast of the substitution of oriented strand board for plywood is made. Two possible alternative explanations for the oscillatory behavior are discussed. |
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