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| Author: | Smil, V. |
| Title: | Perils of long-range energy forecasting: reflections on looking far ahead |
| Journal: | Technological forecasting and social change
2000 : NOV, VOL. 65:3, p. 251-264 |
| Index terms: | LONG RANGE PLANNING ENERGY FORECASTS MODELS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Critical examinations of long-range energy forecasts show a remarkable extent of individual and collective failure in predicting actual developments in five distinct areas examined in this article: major energy conversions, primary energy requirements, sectoral needs, exhaustion of energy resources, and energy substitutions. These experiences demonstrate that we should abandon detailed quantitative point forecasts in favor of the decision analysis or contingency planning under a range of alternative scenarios. |
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