search query: @author Singer, J. / total: 4
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| Author: | Singer, J. |
| Title: | Anecdotal plausibility, historical generalization and policy predictions |
| Journal: | Scandinavian Journal of Development Alternatives
1995 : SEP, VOL. 14:3, p. 93-96 |
| Index terms: | POLICY HISTORY ECONOMICS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Every historical analogy is fallacious. Since no two cases are identical, no single case can serve as a reliable guide to contemporary policy. Any useful lessons from history need to rest on the observation of all the relevant cases - or, at least, a credibly representative sample. Doing that, we can then safely generalize and say, for example, that in such a fraction of the cases such and such a behavior pattern culminated in such and such an outcome. While a large number of such solid generalizations will not guarantee success in policy, it could appreciably reduce our error rate. |
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