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| Author: | Keating, J. W. Nye, J. V. |
| Title: | Permanent and transitory shocks in real output: Estimates from nineteenth-century and postwar economies |
| Journal: | Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
1998 : MAY, VOL. 30:2, p. 231-251 |
| Index terms: | Prices Supply Demand Time series Models Statistical methods |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper re-examines Blanchard and Quah's (1989) aggregate supply / demand model interpretation of output shocks using data from 10 countries. Although postwar data support their interpretation, the model is not supported by 19th century data. In the postwar period, permanent output shocks cause the price level to move in the opposite direction and temporary output shocks cause the price level to move in the same direction. But with pre-World War I data, permanent output shocks typically cause price level movements in the same direction. The results are systematic and cannot be explained by data problems. |
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