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| Author: | Romilly, P. |
| Title: | Time series modelling of global mean temperature for managerial decision-making |
| Journal: | Journal of Environmental Management
2005 : JUL, VOL 76:1, p. 61-70 |
| Index terms: | Decision making Time series Forecasting Environment Climate Models |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | For business and economic activity, climate change (hereafter as: cl-chng.) has important implications. Effective management of cl-chng. impacts will depend on the availability of accurate and cost-effective forecasts. In this paper, univariate time series techniques are used to model the properties of a global mean temperature (here as: g-m-t./g-m-ts.) dataset (here as: g-m-t-d.) to develop a parsimonious forecasting model for managerial decision-making over the short-term horizon. A forecasting evaluation shows that the chosen model performs well against rival models. The estimation results confirm the findings of a number of previous studies, namely that g-m-ts. increased significantly during the 20th century. |
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