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| Author: | Menzler-Hokkanen, I. |
| Title: | Time series properties of comparative advantage indices |
| Journal: | Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv
1988 : VOL. 124:2, p. 242-251 |
| Index terms: | TIME SERIES COMPETITIVENESS FINLAND |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | It is essential to forecast shifts in a country's comparative advantage in order to avoid trade and structural problems. A UNIDO study from 1982 assumes that comparative advantage indices constitute a trend-stationary process. The present paper analyses Finland's UN trade statistics at a three-digit aggregation level for 1965-1983 and finds that a random-walk-with-drift model is superior to either a deterministic trend or a second-order difference model. |
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