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| Author: | Claveria, O. Datzira, J. |
| Title: | Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations |
| Journal: | Tourism review = Revue de tourism = Zeitschrift für Tourismus
2010 : VOL. 65:1, p. 18-36 |
| Index terms: | tourist industry tourism demand analysis markets forecasting consumers models Spain |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at introducing consumer expectations in time-series models to analyse their usefulness for forecasting tourism demand. The focus is on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia, Spain, for the four main visitor markets, that is, France, the U.K., Germany and Italy, combining qualitative information with quantitative models. The forecasting performance of the different models (AR, ARIMA, SETAR, MKTAR) is evaluated for different time horizons (1, 2, 3, 6, and 12 months). Despite the found differences btw. the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models (MKTAR) outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all analyzed time horizons. |
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