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| Author: | Kaplan, E. H. |
| Title: | What are the risks of risky sex? Modeling the AIDS epidemic. |
| Journal: | Operations Research
1989 : MAR-APR, VOL. 37:2, p. 198-209 |
| Index terms: | AIDS STOCHASTIC PROCESSES MATHEMATICAL MODELS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | A mathematical model is constructed for studying the transmission of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome virus in a community of gay men. The presented model is essentially deterministic, but allows for probabilistic interpretations. A key question relates to the condition under which the epidemic is able to develop. The results show that it is pessimistic to make the simplifying assumption of exponential sex lives. It is also shown that random partner selection implies that the chance that a selected man is infected exceeds the fraction of infected men in the population. The epidemic is examined under a variety of scenarios. |
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