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| Author: | Dillon, R. L. John, R. Winterfeldt, D. von |
| Title: | Assessment of Cost Uncertainties for Large Technology Projects: A Methodology and an Application |
| Journal: | Interfaces
2002 : JUL-AUG, VOL. 32:4, p. 52-66 |
| Index terms: | DECISION ANALYSIS RISK GOVERNMENT COSTS PROJECTS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Large projects, especially those planned and managed by government agencies, often incur substantial cost overruns. The tolerance, particularly on the part of members of Congress, for these cost overruns has decreased, thus increasing the need for accurate, defensible cost estimates. Important aspects of creating responsible cost estimates are accounting for the uncertainties in these estimates, expressing the estimates clearly, and communicating them to decision makers. The authors' method for estimating cost uncertainties can be used at all stages of a project. It combines the principles of probabilistic risk analysis with procedures for expert elicitation to incorporate uncertainties and extraordinary events in cost estimates. |
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