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| Author: | Gerlach, S. |
| Title: | The two pillars of the European Central Bank |
| Journal: | Economic Policy
2004 : OCT, 40, p. 389, 391-439 |
| Index terms: | Banking Central banks European Monetary System European Union Models |
| Freeterms: | EMS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the European Central Bank's (ECB) two-pillar strategy is interpreted by proposing an empirical model for inflation (hereafter as: infl.) distinguishing btw. the short- and long-run components of infl. The latter component depends on an exponentially weighted moving average of past monetary growth and the former on the output gap. Estimates for the 19712003 period suggest that money can be combined with other indicators to form the 'broadly based assessment of the outlook for future price developments' constituting the ECB's second pillar. However, the analysis does not suggest that money should be treated differently from other indicators. |
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