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| Author: | MacDonald, R. Marsh, I. W. |
| Title: | Currency forecasters are heterogeneous : confirmation and consequences |
| Journal: | Journal of International Money and Finance
1996 : OCT, VOL. 15:5, p. 665-685 |
| Index terms: | FOREIGN EXCHANGE FORECASTING |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Using a disaggregated international survey database it is shown that foreign exchange forecasters hold heterogeneous expectations. It is found that a major cause of these differences of opinion is the idiosyncratic interpretation of widely available information, and that this heterogeneity translates into economically meaningful differences in forecast accuracy. Finally, it is shown that such disagreements are key variables in determining market trading volume. |
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