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| Author: | Foa, R. Howard, M. |
| Title: | Use of Monte Carlo simulation for the public sector: and evidence-based approach to scenario planning |
| Journal: | International Journal of Market Research
2006 : VOL. 48:1, p. 27-48 |
| Index terms: | scenarios monte carlo technique market research |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper describes a statistical methodology that can be deployed in order to conduct evidence-based scenario planning. By detailing the Monte Carlo process, the authors argue that it is possible to take a non-linear, non-deterministic but empirically grounded approach to the creation of strategic contingency plan for the future. The process is explained in such a way that it can be adopted by industry practitioners, with key lessons detailed for future scenario-planning exercises. |
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