search query: @author Robinson, J. B. / total: 5
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| Author: | Robinson, J. B. |
| Title: | Loaded questions : new approaches to utility forecasting. |
| Journal: | Energy Policy
1988 : FEB, VOL. 16:1, p. 58-68 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING PLANNING |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Long-term load forecasting is evaluated, based upon an examination of load forecasting at Ontario Hydro, a large Canadian utility. It is argued that predictive forecasting based on econometric models is an unreliable and unuseful basis for energy decision making and system planning. Even if the most likely future demand for electricity could be predicted, this may be less useful than to know what other, potentially more desirable futures are available and something about their feasibility and impacts. Load forecasting has to move in the direction of more exploratory analysis of feasibility and impacts of alternative demand scenarios, based on detailed end-use analysis. |
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