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| Author: | Hale, H. E. Taagepera, R. |
| Title: | Russia: Consolidation or Collapse? |
| Journal: | Europe-Asia Studies
2002 : NOV, VOL. 54:7, p. 1101-1126 |
| Index terms: | RUSSIA ANALYTICAL REVIEW POLICY INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This essay seeks to assess (1) the likelihood that the Russian Federation will collapse in the foreseeable future and (2) the possible forms that such dissolution might take. The latter question is extremely important, since it may determine whether a fragmented Russia would join the EU or bring the world its second nuclear war. Finally, the authors seek (3) to offer some preliminary advice for policy makers (Russian and Western) and political scientists studying the issue. The essay discusses the need to 'expect the unexpected', to go beyond the important exercise of empirical extrapolation to consider other theoretically possible scenarios of dissolution. The concluding part steps back to offer a tentative evaluation of the probabilities of different scenarios. It also offers some preliminary recommendations to policy makers. |
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