search query: @indexterm BUSINESS CYCLES / total: 529
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| Author: | Boldin, M. |
| Title: | Dating turning points in the business cycle |
| Journal: | Journal of Business
1994 : JAN, VOL. 67:1, p. 97-132 |
| Index terms: | BUSINESS ECONOMICS BUSINESS CYCLES FINANCE |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The author reviews and evaluates procedures for dating peaks and troughs of the business cycle. Five different methods are judged on their historical performance, ease of replication, clarity, timeliness, flexibility, and the validity of underlying assumptions. In addition, the author examines the 1990-92 period in detail where two newer dating methods are especially insightful because they use statistically rigorous methods to derive turning point probabilities, and, thereby, the inherent uncertainty in the data can be recognized. |
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