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| Author: | Hodrick, R. J. Prescott, E. C. |
| Title: | Postwar U.S. business cycles: An empirical investigation |
| Journal: | Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
1997 : FEB, VOL. 29:1, p. 1-16 |
| Index terms: | BUSINESS CYCLES USA EMPIRICAL RESEARCH |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper documents some features of aggregate economic fluctuations (business cycles), by using quarterly data from the postwar U.S. economy. The studied fluctuations are too rapid to be accounted for by slowly changing technological and demographic factors and changes in the stocks of capital producing secular growth in output per capita. A prodecure for representing a time series as the sum of a smoothly varying trend component and a cyclical component, is proposed. The nature of comovements of the cyclical components of a variety of macroeconomic time series, is documented. These comovements differ from corresponding comovements of the trend components varying slowly. |
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