search query: @indexterm BUSINESS CYCLES / total: 529
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| Author: | Simpson, P.W. Osborn, D.R. Sensier, M. |
| Title: | Modelling business cycle movements in the UK economy |
| Journal: | Economica
2001 : MAY, VOL. 68:270, p. 243-267 |
| Index terms: | BUSINESS CYCLES GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT UNITED KINGDOM |
| Freeterms: | TIME-VARYING TRANSITION PROBABILITIES |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper models the phases of the UK business cycle using GDP data with a time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) Markov-switching regime model and exogenous leading indicator variables. Single indicators in linear models are compared with the TVTP framework, with logistic and exponential functions used in the latter. |
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