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| Author: | Winegarden, C. R. Wheeler, M. |
| Title: | The role of economic growth in the fertility transition in Western Europe: econometric evidence. |
| Journal: | Economica
1992 : NOV, VOL. 59-236, p. 421-435 |
| Index terms: | ECONOMIC GROWTH EUROPE, WEST DEMOGRAPHY ECONOMETRIC MODELS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | A structural model has been constructed in which economic growth causes nonlinear changes in fertility. The model has been tested with time-series data for four Western European countries going through transition from the traditional 'large family' pattern that prevailed in Western Europe in the previous century to the modern 'small family' system. It is shown that both the regression results and the historical simulations strongly support economic growth-gauged by real 'per capita' incomes - as a cause of fertility change in Western Europe. The non-monotonic effect of 'per capita' incomes on birth rates is consistent with the microeconomic theory of fertility. |
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