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Author:Andersen, T.G.
Bollerslev, T.
Meddahi, N.
Title:Analytical evaluation of volatility forecasts
Journal:International Economic Review
2004 : NOV, VOL. 45:4, p. 1079-1110
Index terms:Economic forecasting
Stochastic processes
Volatility
Language:eng
Abstract:Estimation and forecasting for realistic continuous-time stochastic volatility models is hampered by the lack of closed-form expressions for the likelihood. In response, Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (Econometrica, 2003) advocate forecasting integrated volatility via reduced-form models for the realized volatility, constructed by summing high-frequency squared units. This study builds on the eigenfunction stochastic models and presents analytical expressions for the forecast efficiency associated with this reduced-form approach as a function of sampling frequency.
SCIMA record nr: 257731
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