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| Author: | Shumway, T. |
| Title: | Forecasting bankruptcy more accurately: a simple hazard model |
| Journal: | Journal of Business
2001 : JAN, VOL. 74:1, p. 101-124 |
| Index terms: | ACCOUNTING RATIOS BANKRUPTCY ECONOMIC FORECASTING |
| Freeterms: | HAZARD MODEL |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The author argues that hazard models are more appropriate than single-period models for forecasting bankruptcy. Single-period models are inconsistent, while hazard models produce consistent estimates. The author describes a simple technique for estimating a discrete-time hazard model. The author finds that about a half of the accounting ratios that have been used in previous models are not statistically significant. |
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