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| Author: | Das, S. Leiby, P. N. Lee, R. |
| Title: | Oil markets under political and military stress. |
| Journal: | Energy Economics
1990 : JUL, VOL. 12:3, p. 204-210 |
| Index terms: | OIL INDUSTRY POLITICAL RISKS ECONOMETRIC MODELS LINEAR MODELS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the Persian Gulf as a sensitive point of world trade and considers the likely effects of two hypothetical disruption, a politically based and an other caused by military confrontation. Economic and linear programming models were used to evaluate petroleum markets. A substantial loss of exports from the region characterizes the scenarios, the disruption results in considerable higher prices and reduced supply and demand of refined products, especially fuels for transportation. Oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve would mitigate the impacts, though the International Energy Agency's oil sharing agreement won't be a factor. |
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