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| Author: | Albertson, K. (et al.) |
| Title: | Forecasting the outbreak of moorland wildfires in the English Peak District |
| Journal: | Journal of Environmental Management
2009 : JUN, VOL. 90:8, p. 2642-2651 |
| Index terms: | climate change probit models risk analysis forecasting tourism time series United Kingdom |
| Freeterms: | wildfire general to specific backcast plant phenology national park |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Based on warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. In the article, a probit model is used to assess the chance of fires at different times of the year, days of the week and under various weather conditions. Current and past rainfall damp fire risk. The model back-predicts earlier fires during a hot dry summer. It is argues the impact of climate change on fire incidence is not straightforward. Risks may be reduced if wetter winters and earlier onset of spring add to plant moisture content. Yet a warm spring increases biomass and potential fuel load in summer. Climate change may cause the timing of moorland wildfires to shift from a damper and more verdant spring to drought-stressed summer. |
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