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| Author: | Ayres, R. |
| Title: | On forecasting discontinuities |
| Journal: | Technological forecasting and social change
2000 : SEP, VOL. 65:1, p. 81-98 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING SCENARIOS EVOLUTIONARY ECONOMICS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Too much has been written about forecasting trends via "envelope curves". To plot a straight line on log-paper is a no-brainer. The special phenomenology of phase changes, catastrophes, or "crashes", and their key evolutionary role is the subject of this article. There is no unique way of forecasting such events, but one indicator is an apparent inconsistency between two or more extrapolations with each other. Alternatively, a catastrophe may be signalled when a trend extrapolation encounters a natural limit. |
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