search query: @author Einhorn, H. J. / total: 6
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| Author: | Hogarth, R. M. Einhorn, H. J. |
| Title: | Venture theory : a model decision weights. |
| Journal: | Management Science
1990 : JUL, VOL. 36:7, p. 780-803 |
| Index terms: | RISK DECISION MAKING |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | A new model, called venture theory, is proposed suggesting people's assessment decision weight, i.e., how they replace probabilities by decision weights when evaluating risky outcomes. It was assumed that people anchor first to a stated probability and then adjust this by mentally simulating other possible values. Mental simulation is influenced by the absolute size of payoff, the extent to which the anchor deviates from the extremes of 0 and 1, and the level of perceived ambiguity concerning the probability. The net effect of the adjustment reflects the relative weight given to values above or below the anchor. The results of three experiments are discussed. |
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