search query: @indexterm SEASONAL FLUCTUATION / total: 63
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| Author: | Matas-Mir, A. Osborn, D. R. |
| Title: | Does seasonality change over the business cycle? An investigation using monthly industrial production series |
| Journal: | European Economic Review
2004 : DEC, VOL. 48:6, p. 1309-1332 |
| Index terms: | Business cycles Seasonal fluctuation Production OECD Models |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This article explores the proposition that the business cycle influences seasonality in industrial production in conditions where the recent growth has been strong and output is switched to the low production summer months. A threshold autoregressive model is being used to analyse the monthly growth rate in 74 industries in 16 OECD countries. The results indicate that business cycle nonlinearity is being found in one-third of the monthly industrial production series. When the series is growing strongly, the production is more evenly spread over the months. Finally, the seasonal business cycles vary from country to country. |
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