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| Author: | Prosser, E.K. |
| Title: | How early can video revenue be accurately predicted? |
| Journal: | Journal of Advertising Research
2002 : MAR-APR, VOL. 42:2, p. 47-55 |
| Index terms: | Consumer behaviour Advertising Forecasting Revenue Leisure industry Video industry Models USA |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Americans love videos. Last year, consumers spent USD 17.4 billion on videos, renting USD 3 billion and buying USD 700 million (VSDA, 2000). Predicting video revenue is critical, because it accounts for 55 percent of gross studio revenue, more than box-office, pay-per-view, and television revenue combined (VSDA, 1998). Introductory advertising has the strongest immediate effect on theatrical revenues, a medium effect on self-through revenues, and a weak effect on rental revenues. How early can video revenue be accurately predicted? Several early indicators are tested. Two models are developed to predict rental and sell-through video revenue with 86 percent accuracy on average by the second week of a movie's release. |
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