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| Author: | Kaminsky, G. |
| Title: | Is there a peso problem?. Evidence from the dollar/pound exchange rate, 1976-1987. |
| Journal: | American Economic Review
1993 : JUN, VOL. 83:3, p. 450-472 |
| Index terms: | EXCHANGE RATES FLOATING RATES INVESTMENT CURRENCY MARKETS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether exchange-rate forecasts, although biased , are still rational. Investors can be rational and yet make repeated mistakes if the true model of the exchange rate is evolving over time. Exchange rate has followed a switching-regime process. The switching-regime model estimated can explain about 75 percent of the bias implied by the forward market and the survey data. |
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