search query: @author Martino, J. P. / total: 7
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| Author: | Martino, J. P. |
| Title: | Using Precursors as leading indicators of technological change. |
| Journal: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1987 : DEC, VOL. 32:4, p. 341-360 |
| Index terms: | TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | A widely utilized technological forecasting method of technological forecasters is the procedure of monitoring for precursors. As part of a recent project which analyzes patterns of technological change, some data are collected which can be used to illustrate the occurrence and nature of these precursor events. In addition, it is found that, with sufficient data, the monitoring technique could be extended to provide quantitative information about the timing of the technological change, in the form of generation of a probability distribution. The examples, and the extensions, are reported. |
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