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Author:Hartley, P.R.
Whitt, J.A. Jr.
Title:Macroeconomic fluctuations: Demand or supply, permanent or temporary?
Journal:European Economic Review
2003 : FEB, VOL. 47:1, p. 61-94
Index terms:Business cycles
Macroeconomics
Models
Europe
USA
Language:eng
Abstract:In this paper, generalized method of moments is used to estimate rational expectations aggregate demand / aggregate supply macroeconomic model for five European economies and the United States. The aim is to examine whether supply or demand shocks have predominated in these economies during the post-war era, and whether shocks of either type have been primarily temporary or permanent in nature. It is found that permanent or temporary demand shocks have been the dominant source of variance in output growth in all six countries, but there is a less consistent pattern for inflation. Permanent supply shocks had the dominant influence on autocorrelations.
SCIMA record nr: 247068
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