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| Author: | Berry, B. |
| Title: | A peacemaker for the long wave |
| Journal: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
2000 : JAN, VOL. 63:1, p. 1-24 |
| Index terms: | TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING SOCIAL CHANGE INFLATION RATES |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Exploratory eigenanalysis of fluctuations in the U.S. inflation rate and rate of economic growth 1790-1995 reveals cyclicalities of -6, -9, 18-19, and 54-57 years. There is strong evidence of entrainment by an 18.61-year geophysical cycle: periods of maximum lunisolar forcing are associated with troughs in building cycles and with the succession of long-wave crises. The implication for technological forecasting is profound. |
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