search query: @author Mishkin, F. S. / total: 8
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| Author: | Estrella, A. Mishkin, F. S. |
| Title: | Predicting U.S. recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators |
| Journal: | Review of Economics and Statistics
1998 : FEB, VOL. 80:1, p. 45-61 |
| Index terms: | FINANCE PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL SHARE PRICES INTEREST RATES |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This study examines the usefulness of various financial variables in out-of-sample predictions of whether or not U.S. economy will be in a recession anywhere between one and eight quarters in the future. Variables with potential predictive content - interest rates, interest rate spreads, stock price indexes, monetary aggregates - are selected from a broad array of candidates and are examined by themselves and in some plausible conditions. The results are compared with similar exercises involving traditional macroeconomic indicators, including widely used indexes of leading indicators and their component variables. |
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