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| Author: | Blake, A. (et al.) |
| Title: | Integrating forecasting and CGE models: The case of tourism in Scotland |
| Journal: | Tourism Management
2006 : APR, VOL. 27:2, p. 292-305 |
| Index terms: | tourist industry tourism forecasting models case studies Scotland |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstrates the ways in which an integrated model, combining traditional forecasting (hereafter as: f-g.) methods and quantifiable forecasts from a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, can be used to examine combinations of events. The model is applied to Scotland combining tourism indicators with structural time-series f-g. and CGE impact analysis. Results are provided for changes in exchange rates, income of major origin countries and a positive shock to tourism demand, to demonstrate the integrated model's ability to take account of the multiple events that affect tourism destinations. |
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