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| Author: | Gray, P. K. Gray, S. F. |
| Title: | Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market |
| Journal: | Journal of Finance
1997 : SEP, VOL. 52:4, p. 1725-1737 |
| Index terms: | MARKET EFFICIENCY GAMBLING INDUSTRY STRATEGY PROFIT |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of various NFL betting strategies. In-sample, profit-based strategies perform extremely well and a number of relatively simple strategies are able to generate positive results in excess of commissions. The probit model indicates that the market overreacts to a team's recent performance and discounts the overall performance of the team over the season to date. A profitable strategy involves betting teams that have performed well over the season as a whole, but which have performed poorly recent weeks. The result has a close analogy with financial markets, amounting a contrarian strategy. |
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