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| Author: | Schipper, L. Myers, S. |
| Title: | Using scenarios to explore future energy demand in industrialized countries |
| Journal: | Energy Policy
1993 : MAR, VOL. 21:3, p. 264-275 |
| Index terms: | ENERGY ENERGY FORECASTS ENERGY CONSUMPTION OECD |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Three scenarios: trends, efficiency push and vigorous effort are presented with focus on the prospects and possibilities for change in energy intensities during the next 20 years in the OECD countries. Five major end-use sectors are considered: manufacturing, passenger travel, freight transport, residential, and services. The scenarios delineate an important (if somewhat vague) boundary between a relatively easily attainable improvement in efficiency and a more problematic level of change. The senarios suggest that OECD energy use in 2010 could be 20-25% less than where trends are pointing (or about equal to demand in 1989) if fairly strong efforts are made. To increase that reduction to 40-45% would be challenging, but not impossible. |
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