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| Author: | Armstrong, J. S. Yokum, J. T. |
| Title: | Potential Diffusion of Expert Systems in Forecasting |
| Journal: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
2001 : MAY, VOL. 67:1, p. 93-103 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING DIFFUSION TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The authors drew upon findings from the diffusion literature to assess the prospects for the diffusion of expert systems in forecasting. Forecasters judged potential adoption of expert systems in relation to two techniques that had been widely adopted in the past, Box- Jenkins and scenarios. They also rated each technique on seven innovation characteristics: relative advantage, compatibility, divisibility, communicability, complexity, product risks, and psychological risks. The respondents were classified by four forecaster roles: researcher, educator, practitioner, and decision maker. In general, the expected probabilities of adoption for expert systems were slightly higher than for the two other techniques. |
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